New Forecast Report: Revenues Stay Down - Slow Recovery Seen

The May Economic & Revenue Report has just been released. This is the monthly report from the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council that looks at state revenue collections. The council has expanded the report to provide useful analysis and trend information.

Here's how the collections look:

Adjusted for special factors ($7.5 million in large deposits in May 2009 and $11.3 million in large deposits in May 2008), collections in the current period are down 13.5% below their year-ago level. Unadjusted, the decline is 14.0%.

Collections for this period are $40.8 million (4.0%) below the March 2009 forecast. Cumulatively, they are $82.7 million (5.1%) below.

The jobs picture here, as it is nationally, is getting better by worsening more slowly.

The unemployment claims data suggest that the pace of job loss will decline in the coming months, but a quick upturn in jobs is not likely. We expect Washington payroll employment to continue to decline through the end of the year with the unemployment rate peaking in mid-2010.

The 7-page report contains a lot of good information. And a little good news.