What About That $2.7 Billion Shortfall?

On the Washington Policy Center blog, Jason Mercier writes that Governor Gregoire doubts the Senate Ways and Means Committee projection of a $2.7 Billion gap between revenues and business-as-usual state spending. The comments came during an interview on KIRO radio with Dori Monson. (Jason provides the link.)

Without wanting to get between dueling analysts - and, to be sure, we're not, because OFM hasn't offered an alternative budget outlook - we have a lot of respect for the work of the nonpartisan Ways and Means Committee. And, while there certainly a lot of twists and turns yet to be navigated before the governor presents her budget in December, the likely shifts in caseloads, health care costs, and revenues ultimately will be trivial relative to the shortfall.

See this WashACE brief for more detail.

The governor has reinstated the Priorities of Government (POG) process to set spending priorities. That will work best if she similarly commits to containing spending within available revenues. Ultimately the gap, which is probably in the $2.7 billion neighborhood, will be closed. A disciplined use of the POG will close it without a tax hike.