State Revenue Forecast Down Again

Not a lot, really, but down.

This morning, the forecast council released the June revenue forecast.

Excluding legislation enacted in the 2008 session, the General Fund-State revenue forecast has been reduced by $166.8 million for the combined 2007- 09 and 2009-11 biennia.

Given the big numbers, the adjustment doesn't amount to much.

The June 2008 forecast for the 2007-09 biennium is $29,402.4 million, which is $60.5 million lower than expected in the February forecast. Of the $60.5 million reduction, $11.0 million is due to legislation and $49.6 million is due to the weaker economic forecast. The forecast for the 2009-11 biennium is $31,754.5 million, which is $163.4 million lower than expected in the February forecast. Of the $163.4 million reduction, $46.1 million is due to legislation and $117.2 million is due to the weaker economic forecast.

Of course, an uptick of the same magnitude would have been a bigger deal, at least psychologically. Two concerns continue. First, a "no change" forecast does nothing to erase the pending shortfall. And, the forecast adopted today is $162 million more optimistic than the average view of the members of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisers, primarily because they take a more pessimistic view of when the housing market reaches bottom.