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12 posts from June 2008

06/24/2008

Considering the State's Widening Budget Gap

A new WashACE Competitiveness Brief looks at what the June revenue forecast means for budget writers in 2009, if not earlier. The brief, prepared for WashACE by the Washington Research Council, replicates the Senate Ways and Means Committee outlook, updating it with the new revenue numbers.

...projected expenditures exceed current revenues by $2.7 billion in 2009?11 and $2.5 billion in 2011?13, indicating a structural deficit. As a result, the GFS shows negative balances of $2.6 billion at the end of FY 2011 and $5.5 billion at the end of FY 2013. The shortfalls might be offset somewhat by funds from the budget stabilization account. Under the current economic forecast, in FY 2009 employment growth will dip below the 1 percent threshold that triggers access to those funds [by a simple majority vote].

Construction activity, which played a large part in the revenue boom, comes in for special attention in the WashACE brief.

The ERFC's models did not accurately forecast the recent boom in construction. Our fear is that?symmetrically?the models are failing to foresee a sharp decline that is in the works.   

With the troubles in the mortgage markets, residential construction activity is slowing and the number of new home permits issued is down sharply. Nonresidential construction remains strong, for the time being. But this largely reflects projects that have been in the pipeline for a long time.

As the brief points out, there will be additional revenue forecasts before budget writers gather in Olympia, as well as updated caseload forecasts, which will alter the trajectory of proposed spending on social services, education, and health care. A slowing economy typically increases pressure on the state budget, so the good news there may be hard to find.

Read the whole brief. And ask your legislators how they plan to close the gap.

06/20/2008

Good Marks for Washington on new Milken Institute Index

The Milken Institute ranks Washington 5th on its 2008 State Technology and Science Index (h/t Bruce Ramsey).

Massachusetts ranks first in the Milken Institute?s 2008 State Technology and Science Index, followed by Maryland, Colorado and California.

According to the report, regional competition for technology industries has increased since the last release of the Index in 2004. Not only are states vying with each other for human capital and resources, but countries like China and India are increasing the competition on a global level.

Ramsey summarizes.

The index had five components. Washington scored 4th on two of them: Technical Workforce and Risk Capital and Entrepreneurial Infrastructure. We scored 8th in two measures, Research & Development Inputs and Technological Concentration & Dynamism, and 16th in one: Human Capital Investment. Tech companies have been saying for a long time that Washington doesn?t graduate enough scientists. We import them from elsewhere.

He says having other people pay for their education while we get the benefit of their brains may not be a bad deal, if we can sustain it.

Strikes me as a risky strategy. We'll have more on this later.

06/19/2008

US Supreme Court Strikes Down Cali Union Neutrality Law

On a morning when our own state Supreme Court got it badly wrong on an important employment case, good news from the other Washington: the US Supreme Court struck down, 7-2, a California law imposing union neutrality requirements on employers doing business with the state

This long awaited decision, Chamber of Commerce v. Brown, ought to tamp down the top legislative priority of unions here in Washington to establish a broader prohibition on employer speech than what even California envisioned.   Indeed, Governor Gregoire cited the pending decision of the court in this case as the primary reason for asking the labor side to withdraw its bill in 2008.

Writing for the majority, Justice John Paul Stevens -- conventionally thought to be the most liberal of the high court justices -- held that the federal labor policy contained in the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) preempts the attempt of California to impose a rule that prohibits employers receiving state funds from using the funds "to assist, promote, or deter union organizing." 

The NLRA preemption doctrine that captured the court's attention forbids states from regulating conduct "that Congress intended to be unregulated because left to be controlled by the free play of economic forces."  Noting its view under prior case law that "Congress struck a balance of protection, prohibition, and laissez-fair in respect to union organization, collective bargaining, and labor disputes," the court determined California's law attempted to regulate within "a zone protected and reserved for market freedom."

The court further elaborated on the inherent right of employers to engage in "free debate on issues dividing labor and management", that this First Amendment right is enshrined in the NLRA, and that it reflects a policy decision "favoring uninhibited, robust, and wide-open debate in labor disputes" involving "freewheeling use of the written and spoken word."   The constitution, buttressed by the NLRA, provides this freedom; states cannot by legislation or regulation take it away.

The state AFL-CIO proposal in Washington is broader than the invalid California law.  It doesn't hinge on the receipt or use of state funds by an employer.  It bluntly prohibits any employer speech about union matters if it can be viewed as a "required" communication -- in a staff meeting, perhaps in a company-wide e-mail, and so on.  It is enforced (like California's statute) by a strong litigation deterrent attempting to make the state's judicial branch the ultimate referee of permissible workplace speech.

But the high court was clear today:  States are not free to regulate what Congress left unregulated in the NLRA.  "When Congress has sought to put limits on advocacy for or against union organization, it has expressly set forth the mechanisms for doing so."  The law "calls attention to the right of employees to refuse to join unions, which implies an underlying right to receive information opposing unionization."  And the NLRA "expressly precludes regulation of speech about unionization" so long as the communications do not threaten or promise anything to the employee. 

Our state unions may be busy between now and the 2009 legislative session testing arguments to distinguish their proposal from California's overreach.  But today's decision should put an end to Washington's union neutrality bill.

(Cross-Posted at the Olympia Business Watch blog)

State Revenue Forecast Down Again

Not a lot, really, but down.

This morning, the forecast council released the June revenue forecast.

Excluding legislation enacted in the 2008 session, the General Fund-State revenue forecast has been reduced by $166.8 million for the combined 2007- 09 and 2009-11 biennia.

Given the big numbers, the adjustment doesn't amount to much.

The June 2008 forecast for the 2007-09 biennium is $29,402.4 million, which is $60.5 million lower than expected in the February forecast. Of the $60.5 million reduction, $11.0 million is due to legislation and $49.6 million is due to the weaker economic forecast. The forecast for the 2009-11 biennium is $31,754.5 million, which is $163.4 million lower than expected in the February forecast. Of the $163.4 million reduction, $46.1 million is due to legislation and $117.2 million is due to the weaker economic forecast.

Of course, an uptick of the same magnitude would have been a bigger deal, at least psychologically. Two concerns continue. First, a "no change" forecast does nothing to erase the pending shortfall. And, the forecast adopted today is $162 million more optimistic than the average view of the members of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisers, primarily because they take a more pessimistic view of when the housing market reaches bottom.

"State Supreme Court Deals Blow to UI System, Employers"

In a unanimous opinion that is nothing short of astonishing, the Washington Supreme Court this morning bluntly erased a thoroughly negotiated, battleground tested, foundational component of our state's Unemployment Insurance system -- its statutory provisions governing "voluntary quits".

The court held that the law didn't say what the Legislature, the Employment Security Department, the business community, and I'd say a vast swath of the labor community, have since 2003 understood it to say.   That is, a negotiated list of ten "good cause" reasons for leaving work voluntarily  while still maintaining eligibility for UI benefits is an exclusive list of reasons for voluntary quits.

Voluntary quits are an issue in unemployment insurance because the historical purpose of the system is to provide a social safety net with partial wage replacement for a temporary period that an individual is unemployed through no fault of his or her own, and is able, willing, and looking for work.  Allowing benefits for individuals who choose to quit work runs afoul of that purpose. 

But in a landmark 2003 compromise bill, the Legislature specified ten (and in 2008 added an 11th) clear reasons why a voluntary quit may still result in benefit eligibility.  Things like relocation of a military spouse, protection of family from domestic violence, certain substantial reductions in pay or hours, and so on.  This was the other half of legislation that fundamentally altered the collection of UI taxes from employers and addressed other benefit costs.  It was part of a business-labor compromise brokered by then Gov. Gary Locke and set against the backdrop of serious economic competitiveness concerns and the state's efforts to win assembly of Boeing's new commercial airliner.

AWB attempted to impress this point upon the court through an amicus curiae ("friend of the court") brief supporting the Employment Security Department.  But the court stated:

Amicus Association of Washington Business contends that the statutory list was intended to be exclusive and that exclusivity was "the finishing stroke of a multi-year public policy compromise between business and labor over the nature of the Unemployment Insurance system . . . and the eligibility for unemployment benefits for persons who voluntarily leave their job[s]." This may well be true.  Unfortunately, we have not been presented with compelling evidence of this underlying legislative purpose by either of the parties. 

Instead, we discern no clear intent from the legislative history. 

We thought the statute spoke for itself, but the court found it "awkward" and "ambiguous".  So the court swept aside the statutory list, but opened Pandora's box: individualized assessments of a claimant's "compelling personal reasons" for voluntarily leaving work regardless of the statutory reasons. 

This will likely be an administrative nightmare for the Employment Security Department both going forward and, potentially, having to reassess benefit claims since 2003 that were turned down because the voluntary quit did not fall within one of the ten reasons.   

And this indefinitely expansive new universe of potential voluntary quit benefits will result in heightened costs to employers facing a downward trending economy (yesterday's news: state unemployment now over 5%) and a system where Washington's job providers already pay the second highest UI taxes in the country.

The UI system has already become a hot topic for the 2009 Legislature because of a US Department of Labor determination that the Employment Security Department's tax collection system is out of conformity with federal law -- a problem the Legislature must fix.

Now, on the benefit side, today's decision elevates the voluntary quits issue to a similar prominence as the Department, stakeholders, and Legislature figure out whether, and how, to pick up the pieces.

(Cross-posted at the Olympia Business Watch   blog)

06/18/2008

Boeing Wins a Big One

Today's good news is very good: The Government Accountability Office sustained Boeing's protest of the Air Force's award of the tanker contract to Northrup Grumman.

?Our review of the record led us to conclude that the Air Force had made a number of significant errors that could have affected the outcome of what was a close competition between Boeing and Northrop Grumman.  We therefore sustained Boeing?s protest, said Michael R. Golden, the GAO?s managing associate general counsel for procurement law.

It seems certain to guarantee Boeing another shot at the contract, with better information and good prospects. Coverage in The News Tribune, the Puget Sound Business Journal, the Seattle PI, and  practically every other NW media outlet. (cross posted at Olympia Business Watch)

Zarelli Calls for State Hiring Freeze as Economy Weakens

State Sen. Joe Zarelli, R-Ridgefield, has issued a new "Budget Tidbit," making the case for a state hiring freeze.  He notes that since the February forecast

...Washington has lost jobs in the last three monthly reports,3 and recently the state?s forecast council revised downward our state?s economic and job growth projections for the next two fiscal years. Tomorrow brings the new quarterly state revenue forecast, potentially exacerbating the deficit projection.

I'm not sure about hiring freezes, but there's no question that Zarelli's recommendation conforms neatly with Denis Healy's First Law of Holes.

WashACE in Flynn's Harp

As far as I can tell, Mike Flynn makes the first public mention of the new and improved WashACE effort. Flynn, the long-time publisher of the Puget Sound Business Journal, closely watches the intersection of business, politics and public policy, currently on his blog, Flynn's Harp. His post is a good introduction to our efforts.

Next State Revenue Forecast Tomorrow

Tomorrow, the state's economic and revenue forecast council releases its estimate of state tax collections for the general fund. The last forecast, in February, sliced more than $400 million from estimated collections. In the Herald, I suggest that the estimated $2.5 billion budget shortfall is likely to grow over the summer and fall, a consequence of stagnant revenues and the increased cost of maintaining state services. Read today's column here.

06/06/2008

Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act Killed

It's gone for now.

The National Association of Manufacturers says that clears the way for something better. And anticipating the bill's defeat, The Foundry blog at The Heritage Foundation says critics of the massive cap-and-trade trillion dollar tax hike should learn from their success. Basic lessons: Get the economics and the science right. Lieberman-Warner cost way too much and would have done little, if any, good.

It, or something much like it, will be back. Oddly, most of what I read cites "bipartisan support" for the legislation, but  bipartisan opposition seems to have been the defining factor.